Tag: Australia

Match #10: Australia vs West Indies Prediction.

How This Works!

This post is set to go before each match. I briefly breakdown the batting and bowling attack of each squad and how they relate to each other before selecting who I think is going to win. Because cricket can be won by a number of wickets (if you’re chasing) or runs (if you’re defending), I’m simply going to select who I think is going to win outright, not in the manner, or by how many runs, they’re going to win by. Makes sense? (Quickly moves on before acknowledging any questions) Great! Let’s get started!

Bowling:

Australia Bowlers/All Rounders: Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Kane Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

West Indies Bowlers/All Rounders: Fabian Allen, Sheldon Cottrell, Shannon Gabriel, Ashley Nurse, Kemar Roach, Oshane Thomas, Andre Russell, Carlos Brathwaite, Jason Holder ©

ICC Ranking Average: (Measured by taking the top 5 bowlers in ICC’s player ratings. Those 5 rankings are then averaged out. The lower the number, the better. If a player is marked out they are not included in the ranking, as they are not effecting the match.)

Australia

  • Pat Cummins: 6th
  • Mitchell Starc: 22nd
  • Adam Zampa: 43rd
  • Nathan Coulter-Nile: 47th
  • Nathan Lyon: 50th
  • Avg: 33rd

West Indies

  • Jason Holder: 39th
  • Ashley Nurse: 49th
  • Kemar Roach: 70th
  • Sheldon Cottrell: 73rd
  • Carlos Brathwaite: 75th
  • Avg: 61st

Breakdown: Okay, okay. The numbers don’t look great for either team, really. We can all agree that both teams have better attacks than what their numbers show, right? West Indies have momentum on their side, especially with the same Pakistan team they shut down, going on and beating World Cup favorites England. Australia is…well, Australia. Rankings mean nothing to them.

Advantage: Australia. But not as distant as the rankings make it seem.

Batters:

Australia Batters/All Rounders: Aaron Finch ©, Alex Carey (WK), Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith, David Warner, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

West Indies Batters/All Rounders: Darren Bravo, Chris Gayle, Shai Hope, Evin Lewis, Nicholas Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer, Andre Russell, Carlos Brathwaite, Jason Holder ©

ICC Ranking Average: (See rules for bowlers above and replace that with batters. You got it!)

Australia:

  • Aaron Finch: 11th
  • David Warner: 12th
  • Usman Khawaja: 22nd
  • Glenn Maxwell: 25th
  • Steve Smith: 31st
  • Avg: 20th

West Indies

  • Shai Hope: 5th
  • Shimron Hetmyer: 29th
  • Chris Gayle: 46th
  • Jason Holder: 73rd
  • Evin Lewis: 81st
  • Avg: 46th

Breakdown: Breaking down the batters is where we see that the rankings aren’t 100% reliable when looking at these teams. Gayle is far too low, while Andre Russel is not even listed (🤔) .

Advantage: Draw. Yea, okay that’s a copout, sure. But I can’t, in good conscience, pick against the West Indies here. They’re so much fun! *Fine it’s Australia, but that’s no fun*

A final bold and likely dumb take:

Andre Russel has a strike rate greater than 200. Don’t let me down Dre Russ!

Final Prediction: Australia in high scoring, high energy match.

Australia vs Afghanistan Prediction (Match #4)

Putting my picks out in public! This should end well and not embarrass me once, no, there’s no chance of that. (Prepares to delete entire site if I get three losses in a row.)

How This Works!

This post is set to go before each match. I briefly breakdown the batting and bowling attack of each squad and how they relate to each other before selecting who I think is going to win. Because cricket can be won by a number of wickets (if you’re chasing) or runs (if you’re defending), I’m simply going to select who I think is going to win outright, not in the manner, or by how many runs, they’re going to win by. Makes sense? (Quickly moves on before acknowledging any questions) Great! Let’s get started!

Bowling:

Australian Bowlers/All Rounders: Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Kane Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

Afghanistan Bowlers/All Rounders: Gulbadin Naib ©, Aftab Alam, Dawlat Zadran, Hamid Hassan, Mujeeb ur Rahman, Najibullah Zadran, Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Rahmat Shah, Samiullah Shinwari

ICC Ranking Average: (Measured by taking the top 5 bowlers in ICC’s player ratings. Those 5 rankings are then averaged out. The lower the number, the better.)

Australia:

  • Cummins: 6
  • Starc: 22
  • Zampa: 43
  • Coulter-Nile: 47
  • Lyon: 50
  • Avg: 33

Afghanistan:

  • Khan: 3
  • ur Rahmen: 10
  • Nabi: 20
  • Dawlet: 55
  • Naib: 58
  • Avg: 29

Breakdown: I see your rankings, ICC, but in this case, I’m still going to have to back Australia. Rashid Khan is the best in white ball cricket right now, there’s little room for debate there. Starc’s ranking comes from his lack of recent play due to injuries. I’d take him over anybody, outside of Khan, if in need of a bowler.

Advantage: Australia

Batting:

Australian Batters/All Rounders: Aaron Finch ©, Alex Carey, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith, David Warner, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

Afghanistan Batters/All Rounders: Asghar Afghan, Hashmatullah Shahidi, Hazratullah Zazai, Mohammad Shahzad, Noor ali Zadran, Mohammad Nabi, Rahmat Shah, Samiullah Shinwari

ICC Ranking Average: (Measured by taking the top 5 batters in ICC’s player ratings. Those 5 rankings are then averaged out. The lower the number, the better.)

Australia:

  • Finch: 11
  • Khawaja: 21
  • Maxwell: 24
  • Stonis: 37
  • Marsh: 44
  • Avg: 27

Afghanistan:

  • Shahzad: 38
  • Shah: 40
  • Nabi: 55
  • Najibullah Zadran: 68
  • Shahidi: 80
  • Avg: 56

Breakdown: The clearest of advantages for Australia. Even excluding Smith and Warner in the rankings because of their lack of play due to suspension, Australia dominates.

Advantage: Australia.

Final Prediction: Australia wins by a large margin.

A final bold and likely dumb call: David Warner goes for a half century (58, to be exact) in this World Cup debut. Why not? I don’t expect this match to be too interesting, so let’s try and have some fun with it.

Australia Roster Breakdown

ICC ODI RANKING: 5th.

Australia hopes to go back-back in World Cups. Is this the team to do it?

Batters/Fielders: Aaron Finch ©, Alex Carey (WK), Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith, David Warner

Bowlers: Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Jhye Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa

All Rounders: Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

Don’t Sleep On

–Adam Zampa: Prone to getting key wickets, Zampa’s ability to sniff out that wicket in the time of need is something Australia needs. With Starc and Cummins expected to do the heavy lifting, Zampa’s ability to hold down the middle overs is key.

–Usman Khawaja: It’s hard to overlook a guy who put up 98, 62, 88, 100, 91, and 104 in matches against India and Pakistan, yet most of the attention on this Australia team seems to be on Warner and Smith coming back. Khawaja is going to take over a match this tournament, you watch.

Needed to Make a Run

–Steve Smith:  The former Australian captain looks to regain his ODI form after extended time away. He’s going to get his chances, how he capitalizes on them will say a lot about Australia’s run.

–David Warner: Similar to Smith, Warner being back in the squad is a huge boost to the offensive attack. Warner’s the leading run getter in the IPL without even playing the final few matches, which is incredible. He’s peaking at the right time and that’s terrifying for non-Australian fans.

Key to the Cup

–Mitchell Starc: After being the leading wicket-taker at the 2015 World Cup, Starc is certainly not afraid of the big stage. While he may not need to reach that level of dominance again, his leadership and ability to take key & early wickets is vital if Australia wants to repeat as champions.

Why Should I Watch?

They’re the defending World Cup champions, that should be enough, right? Add on to that the drama surrounding Smith and Warner’s return to the lineup and this Australia team, more than others, is a must watch squad.

How Fun is this Team to Watch? (10/10)

Can I trade fun for drama-filled? (Remembers this is my blog and I can do whatever I want) Yes, I can! Make that 10/10 because who the hell knows what’s going on with this team. Smith and Warner should fit back into the squad seamlessly, but that would just be too easy, right?

Best Case

World Cup glory. That’s it, that’s the only reason Australia comes to these events. There is no other scenario where Aussie fans leave happy.

Worst Case:

Oh boy. This is where it gets fun. Smith and Warner’s return causes mayhem in the locker room causing shocking losses and an early exit. Off the field issues arise and force a member of the team to be sent home during the tournament, bringing back the dark cloud over Australian cricket. Unlikely, sure, but this is the absolute worst case scenario, so simply losing to England, India, New Zealand and a shocking upset to Afghanistan, isn’t necessarily out of the question.

Prediction

The team unites and things start to click as the tournament gets going. They don’t win in spectacular fashion, but I think they make a deep run. It’s Australia, it’s what they do.

Want to see exactly how far I have Australia progressing? Click here to see my full tournament breakdown!