Tag: West Indies

Match #10: Australia vs West Indies Prediction.

How This Works!

This post is set to go before each match. I briefly breakdown the batting and bowling attack of each squad and how they relate to each other before selecting who I think is going to win. Because cricket can be won by a number of wickets (if you’re chasing) or runs (if you’re defending), I’m simply going to select who I think is going to win outright, not in the manner, or by how many runs, they’re going to win by. Makes sense? (Quickly moves on before acknowledging any questions) Great! Let’s get started!

Bowling:

Australia Bowlers/All Rounders: Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, Kane Richardson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

West Indies Bowlers/All Rounders: Fabian Allen, Sheldon Cottrell, Shannon Gabriel, Ashley Nurse, Kemar Roach, Oshane Thomas, Andre Russell, Carlos Brathwaite, Jason Holder ©

ICC Ranking Average: (Measured by taking the top 5 bowlers in ICC’s player ratings. Those 5 rankings are then averaged out. The lower the number, the better. If a player is marked out they are not included in the ranking, as they are not effecting the match.)

Australia

  • Pat Cummins: 6th
  • Mitchell Starc: 22nd
  • Adam Zampa: 43rd
  • Nathan Coulter-Nile: 47th
  • Nathan Lyon: 50th
  • Avg: 33rd

West Indies

  • Jason Holder: 39th
  • Ashley Nurse: 49th
  • Kemar Roach: 70th
  • Sheldon Cottrell: 73rd
  • Carlos Brathwaite: 75th
  • Avg: 61st

Breakdown: Okay, okay. The numbers don’t look great for either team, really. We can all agree that both teams have better attacks than what their numbers show, right? West Indies have momentum on their side, especially with the same Pakistan team they shut down, going on and beating World Cup favorites England. Australia is…well, Australia. Rankings mean nothing to them.

Advantage: Australia. But not as distant as the rankings make it seem.

Batters:

Australia Batters/All Rounders: Aaron Finch ©, Alex Carey (WK), Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith, David Warner, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis

West Indies Batters/All Rounders: Darren Bravo, Chris Gayle, Shai Hope, Evin Lewis, Nicholas Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer, Andre Russell, Carlos Brathwaite, Jason Holder ©

ICC Ranking Average: (See rules for bowlers above and replace that with batters. You got it!)

Australia:

  • Aaron Finch: 11th
  • David Warner: 12th
  • Usman Khawaja: 22nd
  • Glenn Maxwell: 25th
  • Steve Smith: 31st
  • Avg: 20th

West Indies

  • Shai Hope: 5th
  • Shimron Hetmyer: 29th
  • Chris Gayle: 46th
  • Jason Holder: 73rd
  • Evin Lewis: 81st
  • Avg: 46th

Breakdown: Breaking down the batters is where we see that the rankings aren’t 100% reliable when looking at these teams. Gayle is far too low, while Andre Russel is not even listed (🤔) .

Advantage: Draw. Yea, okay that’s a copout, sure. But I can’t, in good conscience, pick against the West Indies here. They’re so much fun! *Fine it’s Australia, but that’s no fun*

A final bold and likely dumb take:

Andre Russel has a strike rate greater than 200. Don’t let me down Dre Russ!

Final Prediction: Australia in high scoring, high energy match.

West Indies Roster Breakdown

Winners of the 2016 T20 World Cup, can the West Indies find their stride and bring back ODI glory in 2019?

Batters/Fielders: Darren Bravo, Chris Gayle, Shai Hope, Evin Lewis, Nicholas Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer  

Bowlers: Fabian Allen, Sheldon Cottrell, Shannon Gabriel, Ashley Nurse, Kemar Roach, Oshane Thomas

All Rounders: Andre Russell, Carlos Brathwaite, Jason Holder (C)

Don’t Sleep On:

–Oshane Thomas: Take over the IPL in your first season? ✔️ A 5 wicket haul against world number one and World Cup favorites England during his last ODI series? ✔️.  Thomas might be the next elite speed bowler out of the West Indies. Plus, my All Name XI is looking for a pace bowler 🤔

–Shimron Hetmyer: Speaking of an elite name, Shimron is top tier, my god. Unfortunately, an elite name can’t hit a massive six or spray the field with masterful fours. Luckily Hetmyer, coming off a series against England where he hit a century, can hit all the shots in the book. It’s going to be interesting to see where he appears in the lineup with DreRuss back on the squad.

–Carlos Brathwaite: You’re going to hear this a lot in this post, but Brathwaite, amongst other batsmen on this roster, can turn a match on its head rather quickly. The Windies best case scenario is Brathwaite taking a handful of wickets while going off for the occasional quick 40 or 50.  

Needed to Make a Run:

– Chris Gayle: Is it actually an issue that Gayle starts a little slow? His play against England was electric, but while the runs were plenty, he struggled to develop strong partnerships. Gayle is going to give you ones, fours, or sixes and that’s it. Frankly, I respect his refusal to even attempt running back for two. He knows where his goose is cooked and he doesn’t stray from it. A true icon.

–Jason Holder: Captaining a side mixed with experience and youth, Holder’s decisions will make or break this run. Where does DreRuss bat in the lineup? Who’s going to lead the bowling attack? WHY IS THERE NO ROVMAN POWELL ON THE TEAM!?

Key to the Cup

– Andre Russell: I mean, you’ve seen what he’s doing in the IPL, right? His strike rate is out of this world right now, and if that carries over to the World Cup then the Windies are capable of making a deep run. I’m gonna make a bold prediction and say DreRuss is going to hit more than one six this tournament, I’ll bet my life on it.

Why Should You Watch?

Do you like sixes? Do you enjoy players swinging for the fences with little regard for getting bowled? Then this is your team.

How Fun is This Team (8/10)

They’re either going to go off and put up big numbers or fall quickly and there’s really no in between. Frankly, that’s incredibly exciting to me, but I understand many fans appreciate a more well-rounded attack. Aside from Thomas, there’s nothing too overly exciting about this bowling attack. They’re efficient, sure, but not flashy. Tune in and watch them swing away, but follow from your phone while they’re bowling.

Best Case

Gayle leads from the front and keeps his red hot ODI form going. Dre Russ channels his T20 strike rate/form and closes out innings with a flurry. The bowling holds up with young gun Thomas and veteran Roach towards the top of the wicket-taking list. A miracle run to the semis while upsetting either India, Australia or England along the way.

Worst Case

The bats don’t come alive. The bowling attack bleeds runs. The Windies flame out of the world cup with a sub .500 record. Loses against big teams like England, India & Australia won’t be a shock, but falling to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, all teams that are beatable, would be a poor result.